PM’s way is a recipe for further distress

- Tony Kevin, Canberra Times opinion, page 17, 20 May 2004

 

The Prime Minister defended his Iraq policy in a speech in Melbourne last night, but does he have any idea what the Iraqi people think at this point? Is he aware that a decisive majority now wants the US-led occupation ended?

A Gallop nationwide poll of 3500 Iraqis, commissioned by CNN and USA Today in March-April, found that 57% of Iraqis (75 % in Baghdad) want US/British forces to leave Iraq immediately (in the next few months). 71% of Iraqis (82% in Baghdad) thought of coalition forces mostly as occupiers, not liberators. And that poll was taken before the worst Abu Ghraib prison torture images hit Iraqi television screens.

Is the Australian diplomatic mission in Baghdad reporting Iraqi opinion? Are Howard’s minders sheltering him from reading such reports? And if Australia is not an occupying power in Iraq, why was Major- General Jim Molan recently appointed as deputy chief of staff for operations in Coalition headquarters in Iraq?

Mr Howard told Parliament on April 1 that Molan, the most senior ADF officer in Iraq, "will be responsible for planning such missions as finding and destroying terrorist cells, patrolling areas where surface-to-air missiles may be fired and, in general, protecting the Iraqi people and the Coalition community."

Growing numbers of Australian soldiers are being recruited as private security contractors in Iraq. It was reported on May 17 that 100 Australians, including about 40 former SAS troops, are working among the estimated 10,000 foreign private security forces now in Iraq. Because of their training and leadership skills, Australian soldiers, especially ex-SAS, are in high demand, earning up to $9000 per week in Iraq. Their numbers are growing.

What are these Australians doing ? Merely guarding and training, or active counter-insurgency work outside the limits of Geneva conventions? What responsibility does the Australian government take for their conduct or personal safety in Iraq?

Has the ADF considered its responsibilities here, given that Australian soldiers who fought recently under our flag in Iraq are now under private arms in this war zone?

After the so-called "transfer of sovereignty" on 30 June, when US-led occupation forces will retreat into defended cantonments, the first line of public security will be left to ill-trained Iraqi soldiers and police and to their private contractor managers. Most of the fighting will be among Iraqis and foreign mercenaries. It will become even more brutal.

The interim authority handpicked by the US occupying authority will have no real sovereignty, no powers over security, and no lawmaking powers. Its sole task will be to prepare for proposed elections in 2005. Its members and employees will be seen by Iraqis as collaborators with the occupation. Resistance forces will continue to target them for killing.

This is a recipe for continued political paralysis, bloodshed and prolonged civilian distress in Iraq. The US-led occupation cannot be "gradually" scaled down and replaced by a UN –led force. This policy would only tarnish the UN in Iraqi eyes with the same brush, and lead to more tragedies like the killing of Sergio de Mello.

There needs to be a clean political break. If the US announces its firm intention to withdraw its forces unconditionally by a named early date, diplomatic space would immediately be created for UN diplomacy to broker a regionally-based peacekeeping force acceptable to Iraqis while they work out their political future.

This is the only policy that can now work. Real potential leaders in Iraq will not come forward until the US occupation is known to be ending.

The strategy to stay and help defend the "sovereign" interim Iraqi administration after June 30 is a failed strategy. It tars Australians with the brush of brutal occupiers, especially if the role of Australian soldiers as mercenaries expands.

It prolongs and increases the risk of Australian casualties and hostage-taking, in Iraq and elsewhere in the Muslim world. It also ramps up the risk to all Australians of potential acts of jihadi terrorism.

Australia should withdraw from supporting this failed occupation, decently and as soon as possible.

 

Tony Kevin, a former Australian ambassador to Poland and Cambodia, is a visiting fellow in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University.